How Accurate Is the CEIR Index?

A recent press release from UFI, the Global Assn. of the Exhibition Industry, announcing that it now has 2,590 “certified” member exhibitions reminded me of the nearly forgotten debate among American trade show organizers 10 or 15 years ago about auditing shows.

The question that was discussed way too often (in my opinion) was whether shows would have more credibility if they allowed independent third parties to verify the number of attendees who were in attendance.

(UFI has long made this a requirement for membership.)

It seems as if the nays eventually wore out the yeas because it’s not discussed much any more, which is probably just as well.

As we have all learned in the aftermath of the Great Recession of nearly 10 years ago, simply getting a large number of people to a show doesn’t guarantee success for anybody. It’s the quality of the attendee/buyer that now matters most

However, lurking somewhere just out of sight is the reality that this is an industry that doesn’t particularly like to share information. This tendency, of course, flies in the face of the advice writers like me are always giving people about using data to make the case for their events.

Certainly, there is nothing wrong with supplying competitors with as little information as possible about your operations. But what I perceive as an industry-wide aversion to sharing data can lead to inaccurate perceptions that will eventually harm everybody.

Case in point: Shows voluntarily submit information to CEIR in order for it to create its quarterly index reports. Since both the identities and the data on individual shows are kept confidential, there is no way to hold event organizers accountable, i.e., make sure they’re telling the truth.

At the same time, CEIR typically does not reveal how many shows it collects data from each quarter in order to construct the CEIR Index. I have been told by multiple sources who, for obvious reasons, do not want their identities revealed either, that some of the 14 industry sectors represented in the quarterly survey have as few as two shows in them.

That means, in some cases, readers of the Index are drawing conclusions about the health of events in a particular industry sector based on the questionable performance of two unnamed shows.

Apparently, the industry is OK with this, but it should not be surprised if it wakes up one morning and discovers all those consecutive quarters of growth were just phantoms.

Michael Hart is an event consultant and conference content professional. He can be reached at michaelhart@michaelgenehart.com, @michaelgenehart or 323-441-9654.

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This Is What Keeps Trade Show Organizers Up at Night

We know the trade show industry is in great shape because CEIR and the trade show media keeps telling us it is, right?

According to CEIR, the first quarter of 2017 was up 1.6 percent over the same quarter a year ago. Revenue was up even more: 2.3 percent. And almost every week, our industry oracles reprint press releases telling us of another show that broke all previous records.

So why are you so nervous?

Is it because your traditional measurement tools no longer work? Is it because the sponsorship contracts and attendee registrations you used to expect six months out or two months out, or even two weeks out, are no longer there?

Many of you are reaching your attendance or revenue goals – eventually – but why does it seem so much harder than it used to? Why is it that you now only can relax on the last day of your event, take a deep sigh and say, “That was a close one”?

Before I started working with event organizers, I spent many years as a newspaper editor. Whenever we blew a deadline, it was almost always clear to me that it wasn’t because of something that happened in that last hour or two before a paper was supposed to go to press. It was because of something that did NOT happen 24 hours earlier.

Potential sponsors and, especially, potential attendees, have the luxury of time in a way they never have had before. They can wait until the last minute to decide whether they’ll participate in your show.

That doesn’t mean they aren’t paying attention to what you’re doing in the meantime. What you do six months or even 10 months out matters more now than it ever did, even though you don’t have the tangible proof that it does.

Potential attendees are looking at your site to see who your keynote speakers are – so you better have them in place early. They are looking to see who is going to be in the exhibit hall that they want to see.

And, as developments change the focus in their industry, they’re checking back to see if you’ll be there in two months or, sometimes, in two weeks, to explain it all to them.

You know there is an urgent need for your community to be at your event. Now tell your community that – and learn to live with those sleepless nights.

Michael Hart is a business consultant and writer who focuses on the events industry. He can be reached at michaelhart@michaelgenehart.com or 323-394-0902.

 

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Why the Amazon-Whole Foods Hookup Doesn’t Bother the Smartest Event Organizers

News at the end of last week concerning the acquisition of Whole Foods by Amazon struck fear in the hearts of some trade show organizers. At least it did for those who have lived through the pain of industry consolidation before.

The theory is that, as big companies gobble up slightly less big companies, there are fewer and fewer exhibitors on the showfloor.

Indeed, it does seem like there are now two big companies – Amazon and Walmart – who are fighting tooth and nail for the opportunity to sell everything to everybody. What makes it interesting to watch is the fact that, while Walmart has worked hard and made enormous investments to move online, Amazon is now trying just as hard to be an online vendor in search of a piece of the brick-and-mortar market.

The conventional wisdom for obsessive show organizers is that big companies like this don’t need a trade show to look for products and services to sell: The one-time exhibitors will go straight to Walmart or Amazon instead. It is true that plenty of vendors are camped out in Bentonville, Ark., but I have indeed seen attendees at trade shows with the name “Walmart” on their badges.

With just the shows I have personal experience with, I’m thinking of events like Natural Products Expo, American International Toy Fair and ABC Kids Expo. All these are shows that make room on the floor for innovations in their industries and for start-ups with new products.

Go to Natural Products Expo on a regular basis and, with every visit, you’ll see a new trend in natural foods nobody had ever heard of the year before. The same with toys at International Toy Fair. This is where the Walmarts and Amazons of the world go to find out everything they don’t already know.

And what about the entrepreneurs who are constantly sussing out the latest technology or overnight phenomenon and building a show launch out of it, providing a platform for companies nobody knew existed. Remember a couple years ago when you heard about the first trade show focused on drones? Or how about a few years earlier, when International CES introduced the Internet of Things to the world, and I discovered a handful of smart event organizers had been launching conferences on the topic for years?

As global commerce continues to consolidate, there will be less and less room for lazy event organizers, and more and more opportunities for fast-thinking entrepreneurs.

Michael Hart is a business consultant and writer who focuses on the events industry. He can be reached at michaelhart@michaelgenehart.com or 323-394-0902.

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8 Ways an Association Event Organizer Can Serve an Industry in Decline

Not every association event organizer gets to run International CES for the consumer technology industry.

Some of us – and you know who you are – manage events for trade associations whose industries have seen better days, industries that have hit an economic rough patch.

Budgets for association member companies are tight, sponsors ignore your voice mails, event attendance drops off and everybody you talk to is grouchy. What’s more, traditionally the annual convention and trade show has been the association’s cash cow and suddenly your president and board are looking to you to do even more to cover the deficit created by declining membership and dues revenue.

And your association has bylaws that say there will be an event every year – no matter what. What’s a flailing association event organizer to do?

  1. Knock off the self-pity. This isn’t about you, it’s about your association and its industry. There may never be a time when your association’s members need a quality event more. Turn your meetings into clearinghouses where attendees can get the information they need to improve their businesses and provide them a venue to interact with each other.
  2. Make your association leaders understand. This is a new paradigm for them too. Association presidents and boards can easily turn a crisis into an opportunity to tell members that “everything will be all right,” when it’s just not true. You must make them understand that this is the time to redouble your efforts to help your membership.
  3. Abandon the annual meeting. Diversification and shifting consumer trends are hitting many industry associations. Maybe a series of smaller events that cater to unique interests will better serve your industry than a one-size-fits-all annual blow-out.
  4. Give your members research they can use. Commission a high-profile industry research company to compile a report on where the industry is headed and what they can do to get there in one piece. Then make the presentation of that report the highlight of your event.
  5. Let people talk to each other. One of the worst parts of an industry downtrend is the feeling that you’re going it alone. Your attendees need those networking events and roundtable discussions now more than ever.
  6. Ditch the motivational keynote speaker. Especially if they’re a hired gun who knows nothing about your business. Instead, recruit one of your highest-profile industry leaders, the CEO of one of your top companies, to talk honestly about the situation and provide some perspective.
  7. Don’t be afraid to cut expenses. Now is not the time for a golf tournament at a PGA course in Arizona or Florida. Even if your attendees can get their bosses to sign off on the expense, it won’t look good to their shareholders. Stick to the low-cost meeting alternatives and, if you can, give your members the steepest discounts you can.
  8. Turn the crisis into a positive. Your industry will survive, in one form or the other, and, if it perceives that you stuck with it through thick and thin, you’ll have their loyalty for life.

Michael Hart is a consultant and business writer who focuses on the events industry. He can be reached at michaelhart@michaelgenehart.com or 323-394-0902.

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